Bitcoin is entering a new cycle
The assessment comes as several technical indicators recover. Bitcoin has notably regained bullish signals across its longer-term trends, while BTC is once again trading around $86,000.
Ki Young Ju does not, however, expect to see the almost vertical moves of the early cycles return. Instead, he is projecting a total increase of 3 to 5x, compared with gains of more than 10x during some previous bull-market phases.
The distinction is essential: this does not necessarily mean a 3x to 5x increase from the current $86,000 level.
If the June low near $58,000 is used as the starting point for the move, a 3x increase would correspond to approximately $174,000. A 4x increase would produce $232,000, while a 5x increase would put BTC at around $290,000. This is also the interpretation adopted by several analyses of his post.
Impressive levels, but far less extravagant than another 10x increase.
On-chain data is recovering
Ki Young Ju is relying primarily on CryptoQuant.
MVRV did not fall below 1 during the current cycle. This indicator compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized cap, which values BTC according to the price at which it was last moved. A ratio above 1 means, in aggregate, that the market valuation remains above holders’ estimated on-chain cost basis.
Even when Bitcoin approached the $58,000–$60,000 range, holders as a whole therefore did not fall below their average on-chain cost basis according to this metric.
Another data point is that the realized cap continues to rise. Ki Young Ju sees this as evidence of new capital entering the market rather than a simple rebound driven by the same investors.
Older whales, or “OG whales,” have reportedly also slowed their distributions. In futures markets, large operators have instead built significant long positions around the cycle lows.
Finally, the 365-day moving average of the PnL Index is beginning to form a turning point. CryptoQuant uses this indicator to track the overall profitability of holders. The move remains at an early stage and does not guarantee further gains, but it reinforces the interpretation that the market regime is changing.
Less than 10x, and fewer 80% crashes
Ki Young Ju’s reasoning goes beyond a simple price target.
Bitcoin is much larger than it was ten years ago. ETFs, funds, companies and institutional investors now account for a much greater share of its market. More capital is therefore required to produce the same price movement.
This maturation could limit parabolic gains.
It could also cushion market collapses.
Previous cycles could combine gains of more than 10x with a subsequent loss of nearly 80% of their value. For the founder of CryptoQuant, the same forces that are gradually reducing Bitcoin’s explosive upside should also make future bear markets less severe.
Institutional participation obviously does not eliminate corrections. Bitcoin ETFs themselves can record outflows of several hundred million dollars in a single session.
The change would instead be structural: Bitcoin could gradually trade part of its 10x potential for greater depth and less destructive cycles.
For an asset valued at several trillion dollars, a 3x or 5x increase would already be colossal. The old Bitcoin of 1,000% gains may be fading. Bitcoin shaped by institutional capital, meanwhile, is beginning to impose a different scale.
