HYPE to unlock more than $331 million
Hyperliquid accounts for the largest one-off unlock during the period. Tokenomist forecasts approximately $331.7 million worth of HYPE, with the next major event expected as early as October 6. The schedule also confirms why it would be misleading to describe the full $1.913 billion as November unlocks.
The event comes at a significant moment for HYPE. The token recently entered the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index with a 3.36% weighting, nearly matching Solana’s. The arrival of new units will therefore increase the tradable supply just as the asset gains greater institutional exposure.
The other one-off unlocks worth more than $10 million involve BTW, ENA, ZRO, FF, XPL, APR, H, ARB, CARDS, SUI, CONX and DBR. BTW trails HYPE by a wide margin at approximately $100.8 million, while ENA and ZRO come in at roughly $49.5 million and $45 million, respectively, in the data reported on October 3.
These emissions are known as “cliff” unlocks: a set amount becomes available on a specific date rather than being released gradually each day.
The potential impact is therefore more concentrated.
RAIN and SOL add more than $600 million
The second group works differently. The tokens are released gradually over time according to their emission schedules.
RAIN leads by a wide margin with approximately $404.6 million over the period, ahead of Solana at around $232 million. CC follows at approximately $101.6 million. Combined, these three assets already account for nearly $740 million.
The Tokenomist dashboard currently shows a pace of roughly $13 million per day for RAIN and $7.5 million for SOL. These amounts change with token prices: a 10% rise in SOL mechanically increases the dollar value of the scheduled units, without changing the number of SOL being unlocked.
Solana nonetheless benefits from a different level of institutional demand than many smaller altcoins. BrefCrypto reported this summer that Solana ETFs were continuing to record capital inflows despite a hesitant market.
The other linear emissions worth more than $10 million involve ZEC, TRUMP, WLD, ASTER, PUMP, AVAX, TAO, MORPHO, NEAR, STABLE, VVV, KITE, AERO, DOT, GRASS and SN51.
Overall, the five largest announced exposures—RAIN, HYPE, SOL, CC and BTW—represent approximately $1.17 billion, or more than 60% of the expected $1.913 billion.
An unlock does not mean a sale
An unlock does not automatically mean that all these tokens will reach exchanges.
It first means that units that were previously locked become transferable. They may belong to teams, early investors, foundations, treasuries or ecosystem programs. Some holders will sell. Others will hold, stake or simply move their assets.
The relationship between the tokens released and the supply already in circulation is therefore more informative than the gross dollar amount. A $20 million unlock on a small project can create more dilution than a $200 million issuance on a network with a much larger market capitalization and deeper liquidity.
Tokenomist estimates, for example, that some emissions represent a significant share of the relevant supply. That is where pressure can become more pronounced, particularly in a market where the altcoin rally is already showing signs of losing momentum.
It is also important to distinguish between dilution and selling pressure. The former can be calculated from the schedule. The latter depends on beneficiaries’ behavior and the available demand when the tokens become liquid.
The $1.913 billion therefore represents potential additional supply, not a scheduled sale of $1.913 billion.
A busy schedule remains ahead. With more than 60% of the total concentrated in five tokens and $331 million worth of HYPE released in a single operation, not all unlocks are equal. For crypto investors, the dates and the share of supply being released will matter more than the eye-catching figure displayed at the top.
