Bitcoin has already left the 80,000-dollar zone
The technical move is significant. Bitcoin has just reclaimed a long-term moving average watched by the market after spending nearly 45 weeks below its 50-week moving average.
The September 20 close came in around 81,159 dollars, versus a 50-week moving average near 78,788 dollars. BTC then climbed above 87,000 dollars.
The classic reaction now is to wait for a return to the former resistance.
79,000 dollars.
80,000 dollars.
Possibly 81,000 dollars.
This zone would theoretically make it possible to check whether the former resistance has become support. That is the scenario currently being followed by several traders positioned for a decline.
Except that a bullish market does not always offer entries so neatly.
Bitcoin could also hold between 84,000 and 86,000 dollars, consolidate sideways for several days, and then resume its climb without ever touching its 50-week moving average.
In that case, those who sold while waiting for “the perfect retest” would gradually come under pressure.
History does not guarantee a retest
Galaxy’s data adds an interesting nuance here.
Galaxy Research studied 13 instances in which Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average after historical bear markets. In 11 of the 13 cases, Bitcoin did not subsequently set a new cyclical low. During four of the five bear markets that had lost this moving average, the first decisive reclaim correctly indicated that the market low was already behind it.
This does not mean that Bitcoin never corrected after these signals.
Above all, it does not prove that the exact level of the 50-week moving average will not be retested this time.
The data says something else: a confirmed recovery of this moving average has historically been much more often associated with an exit from the bear market than with a mere false start.
The current rally also has momentum. Bitcoin gained around 25% in August, and the week from August 16 to 23 produced the largest weekly dollar gain in its history, with 14,775 additional dollars in seven days.
Systematically waiting for a deep correction after a move of this kind can therefore become a bet in its own right.
The market could force latecomers to buy higher
The psychology is almost as interesting as the chart.
When Bitcoin was trading around 60,000 dollars, many were still concerned about a break below the 58,000-60,000-dollar zone.
At 86,000 dollars, the situation has reversed.
Investors who did not buy lower are now hoping for a correction.
This creates a potential pool of buyers.
If Bitcoin falls toward 80,000 dollars, they will be able to enter as planned. But if BTC remains above 84,000 dollars and then starts to test 90,000 dollars, some of this capital could eventually buy higher for fear of missing the move.
That is precisely how a market can advance without a spectacular correction: every small decline quickly finds buyers.
The next visible level is now around 90,000-92,000 dollars, while a loss of the 81,000-dollar zone would naturally bring the 50-week moving average near 79,000 dollars back to the center of the chart.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s historical volatility means neither scenario can be taken for granted.
That is the paradox: almost everyone would now like to buy the pullback. It is precisely when the market is waiting for the same level that Bitcoin may decide not to offer it.
