Bitcoin was worth less than $20 during the first shock
The story begins with a Forbes article published on June 20, 2011, titled So, That’s the End of Bitcoin Then. Contributor Tim Worstall found it difficult to see what Bitcoin could actually offer after security problems and its price collapse. BTC was trading around $17 to $18.
At that level, $1,000 invested in Bitcoin would have bought approximately 55 BTC. With the price now above $86,000, those coins would be worth around $4.8 million to $4.9 million, excluding fees and taxes.
Warren Buffett took over in 2014. The Berkshire Hathaway chief executive advised people to “stay away” and called Bitcoin a “mirage.” On March 14, 2014, BTC closed at approximately $628.80.
A $1,000 investment made at that price would be worth approximately $137,000 today. The viral figure of $127,400 therefore depends on a different reference price or another date for Buffett’s criticism.
The broader trend remains unchanged.
Dimon, Buffett and Trump also witnessed the rise
In September 2017, Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a “fraud” while BTC was trading around $4,100. He even acknowledged that its price could rise sharply before a potential collapse.
$1,000 invested during that period would represent approximately $20,000 to $21,000 today.
Then Warren Buffett returned.
On May 5, 2018, he described Bitcoin as “rat poison squared.” BTC closed that day at $9,858. A $1,000 investment would now be worth close to $8,800.
Donald Trump in turn criticized Bitcoin in July 2019, saying that it was not a currency and that its value was highly volatile and “based on thin air.” BTC was worth approximately $11,000 to $12,000.
The $1,000 would now be worth close to $7,500, depending on the exact time used.
These results also illustrate Bitcoin’s extreme historical volatility. Between each of these statements and today, BTC never rose in a straight line. Several corrections of more than 50% separated these points.
Looking only at the final return therefore erases an important part of the story.
Even the ECB remains in the red on its bet
The European Central Bank’s case is more recent.
On November 30, 2022, two ECB officials, Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf, published Bitcoin’s last stand. Bitcoin had just been hit by the collapse of FTX and was trading around $17,000. The authors argued that its apparent stabilization looked more like “an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance.”
$1,000 of BTC purchased that day would now be worth a little more than $5,000.
Charlie Munger subsequently called for cryptocurrencies to be banned in the United States in February 2023, comparing them to gambling contracts. Bitcoin was trading around $23,000 to $24,000. The same $1,000 would now be worth close to $3,600.
Finally, on February 22, 2024, Bindseil and Schaaf renewed their criticism in a new ECB blog post: even after the approval of U.S. spot ETFs, they maintained that Bitcoin’s “fair value” was zero. BTC closed at approximately $51,282.
The corresponding $1,000 is worth approximately $1,690 today.
The historical record is therefore striking, even though it obviously does not constitute an investment strategy. Public criticism does not automatically create a price bottom, and past performance cannot reveal Bitcoin’s next price.
What these eight episodes tell us is different: since 2011, Bitcoin has endured exchange bankruptcies, bans, bear markets and sometimes extremely violent crashes, while the value of one BTC rose from a few dozen dollars to more than $86,000.
The irony lies above all in the amounts. The more recent the “obituaries,” the less extravagant the multiples become. Nearly $5 million for the theoretical 2011 purchase. Around $1,700 for the 2024 purchase.
Bitcoin continues to survive its critics.
It has simply become much larger in the meantime.
