Bitcoin returns to a decisive zone
The scenario rests almost entirely on the weekly 50-week moving average. Bitcoin has just reclaimed this average after spending several months below it, reinforcing bullish readings across the market.
BTC closed the week of September 20 at around $81,159, compared with a 50-week moving average near $78,788. It was the first weekly close above this average since November 2025.
Then the acceleration was sharp: Bitcoin climbed as high as $87,363 the following day.
Dr Profit now believes a retest is necessary. His first target at $79,000 is almost exactly at this moving average. From an entry at $86,200, that would represent a correction of approximately 8.4%.
His plan is fairly simple. If the 50-week moving average holds as support, he plans to take profits on the short and use part of those gains to add to his BTC and ETH positions. If the level breaks, he could keep his short open while targeting lower prices.
This is therefore not a long-term bet against Bitcoin.
A short position as the market turns euphoric
The second part of his thesis is based on sentiment.
Bitcoin rose from a low near $58,500 in late June to more than $87,000, representing an almost 49% recovery. Dr Profit believes that many investors who missed prices around $60,000 eventually bought after the acceleration.
“Everyone” is obviously an exaggeration that is impossible to measure. The underlying idea is more interesting: consensus changed quickly.
A few weeks ago, the $58,000-$60,000 zone was still considered a critical line for Bitcoin. After the rally toward $87,000, the prospect of a new low in October is attracting far less attention.
Dr Profit is specifically seeking to exploit this shift in psychology.
He says he has since increased his short positions to around $13 million, according to his Telegram posts from September 22. This figure comes from the trader himself and does not represent an independently verified position.
His spot purchases around $60,000 nevertheless remain open.
Bullish on the cycle.
Bearish on the next move.
The two positions are not contradictory when they apply to different time horizons.
$79,000 becomes the real test
The $78,000-$79,000 zone extends beyond Dr Profit’s trade alone.
Several analysts are watching the reclaimed weekly 50-week moving average precisely because this average has often separated bearish regimes from more sustained recoveries.
That does not make the 50-week moving average an inviolable support level. Historical precedents also include false signals.
That is precisely what makes a retest interesting.
If BTC returns toward $79,000 and rebounds decisively, the former resistance would confirm its new role as support. The recent breakout would then gain credibility.
A clean break, on the other hand, would take the market back below an average it has only just reclaimed.
The move would be watched all the more closely because leveraged positions remain capable of sharply accelerating Bitcoin corrections.
For now, the market remains well above that level: Bitcoin is trading around $86,000 on September 23 after gaining nearly 7% on September 21.
Dr Profit is therefore betting on a correction against a trend that has just turned bullish again on the weekly chart.
His short will be judged primarily around one zone: $79,000.
That is where Bitcoin will have to choose between a simple retest and a genuine invalidation.
