Bitcoin puts $100,000 back on the table
Just a few weeks ago, the market was looking more toward the downside. The $58,000 to $60,000 zone was notably being described as a critical line for Bitcoin. BTC ultimately moved away from that level, climbing above $87,000 this week.
Kalshi is directly reflecting this reversal in its prediction contracts.
The probability that Bitcoin will exceed $99,999.99 before January 1, 2027, has now reached 42%. The same market now assigns just a 25% chance to a move above $109,999, followed by 16% for a move above $119,999. More than $4.8 million in volume has been traded on this prediction market.
The change has been sharp. On September 21, Kalshi still measured this probability at 38%. A week earlier, it had fallen as low as 16%.
It is not yet a majority view.
The trajectory, however, is difficult to ignore.
The rally is rapidly changing sentiment
Bitcoin has just reclaimed its 50-week moving average, after spending nearly 45 weeks below the indicator. This recovery adds to other technical signals that have turned bullish again on the weekly chart.
Price did the rest.
BTC rose from a low near $58,500 in June to above $87,000 on September 21. That represents an almost 49% recovery.
Prediction markets followed.
On September 18, Kalshi still put the odds of a return above $100,000 before the end of the year at just 24%. Three days later, the figure reached 38%. It now stands at 42%.
Even the scenario of a move above $110,000 is beginning to regain ground, with a 25% probability at present.
This is what Kalshi primarily measures: trader sentiment, not Bitcoin’s fundamental value.
Participants buy and sell contracts with real money. The odds therefore vary according to what they are willing to pay for each scenario. They could still change sharply if BTC falls back below $80,000.
Bitcoin still needs to gain 15.6%
At approximately $86,500, Bitcoin needs to gain around 15.6% to reach $100,000.
For an asset this volatile, such a move is far from impossible. It is not a given either.
Institutional flows remain uneven. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already shown that they can record several hundred million dollars in outflows in a single session. A correction toward the weekly 50-week moving average, located around the $79,000 area, is also being watched by several traders.
That is the ambiguity at the heart of the current market.
Bitcoin has just sent several recovery signals, while some market participants are still betting on a retest around $79,000. At the same time, the Kalshi market has moved from a 16% to a 42% chance of seeing $100,000 again in just a few days.
So $100,000 is not yet the central scenario.
Above all, it is no longer a marginal scenario.
And after a rally of nearly 49% from June’s low, it took only a few weeks for the market to start seriously discussing six figures again.
