Bitcoin is stringing together what the bears could not
The contrast with previous bear markets is fairly clear. In 2014, Bitcoin managed two consecutive positive months in May and June before falling again. In 2018, the rebounds were even shorter. The same pattern appeared in 2022: February and March ended in positive territory before April reignited the decline sharply.
Never three consecutive green months at the heart of those three major bearish years.
In 2026, the sequence is different. Bitcoin had nevertheless emerged from a disastrous June, down approximately -20.4%. July responded with +7.3%, followed by nearly +25% in August. BrefCrypto had already highlighted how unusual August was, occurring in the middle of a bear market. September was expected to be the next test.
So far, it is holding.
Historical data from Look Into Bitcoin also shows why the sequence is attracting so much attention: past bear markets produced violent rebounds, but rarely ones persistent enough to deliver three consecutive positive monthly closes.
The important word, however, is “closes.” September is not over yet.
Three green months are not enough to declare a bull market
Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,000, while August ended near $78,000. A significant decline would therefore be needed before the monthly close to completely erase September’s gain.
The three-green-month scenario therefore appears well underway.
That does not automatically turn the market into a bull market. Bitcoin’s history includes several lengthy recovery phases within cycles that remained fragile. And 2026 remains unusual: January lost approximately 10%, February nearly 15%, and June more than 20%. For the year as a whole, BTC remains slightly negative despite its recent rally.
Even Fidelity recently refused to definitively bury the bear market after Bitcoin returned above $81,000. The asset manager considered that a new low remained possible despite the price improvement.
The three-month signal should therefore be read for what it is: a difference in behavior compared with the 2014, 2018 and 2022 bear markets, not a mathematical rule capable of predicting what comes next.
There is also a definitional issue. A bear market has no official boundary in Bitcoin. Some use a decline of more than 20% from a high, while others wait for the formation of a new cycle of lower lows and higher highs. Saying that “three green months never occur in a bear market” therefore depends partly on the period one decides to classify as a bear market.
October arrives with a much stronger market
September’s close takes on even greater significance given the calendar.
Bitcoin will enter October on Thursday, historically one of its most favorable months. In recent datasets, October’s average return is around 19%, with a clear majority of positive closes. The famous “Uptober” would therefore arrive immediately after three months of rebuilding.
The technical backdrop has also improved. Bitcoin recently reclaimed its 50-week moving average after testing it several times during the rebound. BrefCrypto had already been tracking this 50W MA as one of the levels capable of changing the medium-term trend.
Then there is the macro picture. U.S. PCE data, employment, the Fed and bond yields can still trigger sharp moves. September itself showed that BTC could move quickly from $87,000 to $83,000 without destroying the monthly structure.
This is probably the most important difference from the start of the rebound. In July, Bitcoin was simply emerging from a collapse. In August, it posted a spectacular month. In September, it is now attempting to prove that the move can last.
A green close will not say that the next bull market has officially begun.
It will say something more factual: Bitcoin will have done in three months what the 2014, 2018 and 2022 bear markets never managed to do.
