Bitcoin: Despite Rebound to $81,000, Fidelity Has Not Buried the Bear Market Yet

Bitcoin has reclaimed $81,000 and is up nearly 30% over the past thirty days. Is that enough to definitively turn the page on the bear market? Fidelity remains far more cautious. The US giant believes the low may indeed have been reached in July. However, it does not rule out another decline, potentially to a new low in November or even later.

Bitcoin Could Still Hit a New Low

The scenario seems almost at odds with Bitcoin’s impressive August performance. BTC gained around 25% during the month, its best performance since November 2024, after spending much of June and July below $65,000.

Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, acknowledges that the low may already have been reached in July.

But nothing is certain.

In its crypto outlook for the fourth quarter, Fidelity notes that Bitcoin’s previous major bottoms formed approximately four years apart. The most recent came in November 2022. A repetition would therefore theoretically place the next one around November 2026.

Kuiper immediately adds an important caveat: these cycles have never lasted exactly four years and remain a poor basis for trying to time the market.

Bitcoin’s Rally Is Still Serious, However

Fidelity is not arguing for an outright bearish scenario either.

Between June and mid-August, volatility was particularly low, a possible sign that sellers were becoming exhausted. Bitcoin then surged more than 25% during the third week of August.

This behavior resembles certain historical exits from bear markets: compressed volatility, exhausted sellers, and then a rapid price expansion.

The debate directly echoes the scenario that Bitcoin has already entered a “soft bull market”, as argued by Dr Profit. Under this interpretation, a sustained move above $82,000 could trigger a significantly more aggressive phase.

Fidelity is also looking at the fundamentals. Stablecoins, tokenization and digital-asset adoption continued to advance while prices were falling. Network activity and use cases therefore did not follow the bear market with the same intensity.

There is room for improvement, but the picture is no longer the same as it was in June.

November Remains on the Radar

Bitcoin reached a record above $126,000 in October 2025. Even around $81,000 today, it remains a long way from that high.

Fidelity therefore prefers to wait for more confirmation.

US regulation could provide one. The group specifically cites the CLARITY Act among the catalysts that could support a new bullish phase. The bill, however, will face a crucial step in the Senate on September 15.

Two credible scenarios therefore remain. July’s low was the true bottom, and Bitcoin is already beginning its next cycle. Or August’s powerful rally is merely a pause before one final downturn this autumn.

Fidelity has not yet taken a position. After a gain of nearly 30% in thirty days, that caution is precisely what makes its warning interesting.