Altcoin volumes are four times higher than Bitcoin’s
The rotation into altcoins is real. Glassnode estimates that aggregate altcoin spot volume is now close to four times Bitcoin’s, its highest relative level since September 2025. Over one week, 72.5% of the altcoins tracked by the company had also outperformed BTC.
The shift has been abrupt. In early September, BrefCrypto was still observing an altcoin rally beginning to stall around Bitcoin at $79,300. A few weeks later, risk appetite has returned with force.
Dr Profit believes the market is becoming overheated. In his message, he says he locked in a 73% gain on ONDO, exited HBAR and XRP, and no longer wants to buy altcoins under current conditions. He is still holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and his long-term Circle and Coinbase positions.
Volume provides part of the explanation. The more activity shifts away from Bitcoin and concentrates in riskier assets, the more the market enters a speculative phase.
Glassnode also notes that similar rotations have previously coincided with local Bitcoin tops.
That does not mean a top has necessarily just been reached.
The market is not highly leveraged, however
This is where Dr Profit’s message needs an important qualification.
He says the market has become “heavily overleveraged.” Glassnode’s data do not support applying that conclusion broadly to altcoins.
The company says instead that traders have added almost no new leverage during the rally. Measured in tokens rather than dollars, open interest in altcoin perpetual contracts has increased only slightly over 30 days. Fewer than half of the markets tracked saw their positions rise.
The report published on September 30 goes further: only 19% of altcoins currently have funding above the neutral level of 0.01%. During previous speculative peaks, that share was significantly higher. Glassnode therefore concludes that the risk of forced deleveraging remains limited.
In other words, volumes are surging, but leverage is not necessarily doing the same.
The recent rally appears to be driven primarily by spot buying.
That is an important distinction. A market supported by cash purchases can obviously still correct, particularly after several weeks of gains. It is nevertheless less vulnerable to a liquidation cascade than a rally built almost entirely on highly leveraged futures positions.
Bitcoin itself is also emerging from a period of declining leverage. BrefCrypto had already observed open interest falling during previous market pullbacks.
Dr Profit’s caution is understandable after his gains. His diagnosis of a massively overleveraged altcoin market is much less well supported.
Dr Profit expects Bitcoin to fall to $79,000
His Bitcoin plan, however, is very precise.
Dr Profit says he entered a short at $86,200 and placed additional orders between $86,500 and $89,500. Bitcoin is now trading around $83,700, putting his first short below its entry level.
His target remains close to $79,000.
This scenario did not come out of nowhere. The analyst was already watching $78,500 as a major zone during the previous rally. BrefCrypto detailed his roadmap toward $82,500 and then $88,000 in early September. BTC subsequently moved above $86,000.
Glassnode now identifies a technical zone fairly close to Dr Profit’s new downside target. Its True Market Mean is around $77,200, marking the first significant on-chain support below the current market. On the upside, an order wall between $85,000 and $85,500 continues to weigh on the price.
The analytics firm remains much less bearish than Dr Profit, however.
It describes Bitcoin as still being in an early bullish phase, with profit-taking relatively limited compared with the 2024 and 2025 peaks. Its concern stems more from slowing ETF flows and low overall volume than from a widespread excess of leverage.
This is where the market becomes interesting.
Dr Profit has taken profits on altcoins and is now betting on a Bitcoin correction toward $79,000. Glassnode confirms an exceptional speculative rotation into alts and immediate resistance above BTC. But its data also show that this rotation still rests largely on spot capital, not on a mountain of leveraged positions.
The market is hot. It is not yet as fragile as the word “overleveraged” suggests.
