Bitcoin is ten days away from a third positive month
The sequence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. After a disastrous June at -20.41%, Bitcoin gained 7.26% in July and then 25.05% in August, its best month since November 2024. September is currently still up by approximately 3% to 3.5%, depending on the time and price series used.
This scenario directly extends what Bref Crypto observed on September 1 after Bitcoin’s historic August. The risk was clear at the time: every previous strongly positive August examined in the article had been followed by a red September.
For now, 2026 is refusing to follow that scenario.
Bitcoin began September at around $78,540. It is now trading above $80,000, after briefly exceeding $82,000 at the beginning of the month, falling below $75,000 in a correction and then recovering much of the lost ground.
The month is far from over. Ten days is a long time for an asset capable of losing 10% in a few sessions. But if BTC ends September above its monthly open, July, August and September will form three consecutive positive monthly closes.
After Bitcoin’s first half of the year, that would represent a considerable change in pace.
September remains historically the worst month
The current resilience appears even more unusual when seasonality is taken into account.
Since 2013, September has posted an average negative return of approximately 3%, according to data used by Bitfinex and cited by CoinDesk. Other historical series produce slightly more negative averages depending on the years included, but the conclusion remains the same: no other month has disappointed Bitcoin holders so consistently.
Between 2017 and 2022, Bitcoin even recorded six consecutive red Septembers. Losses were approximately -7.7% in 2017, -6% in 2018, -13.9% in 2019, -7.7% in 2020, -7% in 2021 and -3.1% in 2022.
Then something changed.
2023: approximately +4%.
2024: +7.4%.
2025: approximately +5.4%.
2026: still in positive territory for now.
If the month holds on to its current gain, Bitcoin will therefore record four consecutive positive Septembers. This reversal may be more significant than the “Rektember” reputation itself. A statistical anomaly repeated for several years eventually loses some of its predictive value.
Seasonality remains useful as context.
It is never a rule written into the Bitcoin protocol.
Three positive months in a bear market? It depends on the definition
The claim that Bitcoin has never recorded three consecutive positive months during a bear market is compelling. Historically, it works reasonably well when using a strict definition of major bear markets from their peak to their true bottom.
In 2014, Bitcoin never recorded more than two consecutive positive months in the middle of the decline. May gained approximately 39%, June 2.6%, and July turned negative again. In 2018, rebounds were even more dispersed: February, April and July rose, but never three months in a row. The same was true in 2022: February and March were positive, then April fell by more than 17%.
The issue arises with 2015.
Bitcoin remained far below its 2013 peak throughout the year. Yet September gained approximately 2.5%, October 33.1%, November 19.8% and December 14.1%. Four consecutive positive months.
Was it still a bear market?
Some would say no. The bottom had already been reached in January 2015, and this sequence marked the beginning of a new bullish regime, even though Bitcoin remained far from its previous record.
That is precisely the issue with 2026.
If $58,000 in June and July was truly the bottom, the current three positive months may not be occurring during the bear market.
They may be signaling that it has ended.
$58,000 has become the central piece of the scenario
The debate therefore comes back to that summer low.
Bitcoin fell to approximately $57,750–$58,000 around the turn of June and July, after losing nearly 55% from its October 2025 record. Since then, the market has not revisited that zone.
Several analyses are beginning to view this level as a serious bottom candidate. James Check believes Bitcoin may have completed its bear cycle around $58,000, while Jamie Coutts places $58,000–$60,000 as a genuine invalidation line for the recovery scenario.
The current monthly rise then takes on a different meaning.
July may not have been merely a rebound.
August may have accelerated the exit.
September is now attempting to consolidate the new structure.
This looks much more like a transition phase than a classic bear market in which every rally ultimately creates a new low.
Even recent negative news has failed to push Bitcoin back toward its low. The Fed has just raised rates for the first time since 2023. The CLARITY Act failed during its procedural vote in the Senate. U.S. Treasury yields exceeded 5% on some longer maturities.
Bitcoin fell below $75,000.
Then it returned above $80,000.
This behavior does not prove that the bottom is confirmed. It simply shows that sellers are now encountering more demand than they did in the spring.
The 50-week moving average adds a second signal to the monthly picture
The technical structure now provides a second piece of evidence.
Bitcoin has just reclaimed its 50-week moving average after several weeks of attempts. Bref Crypto had already been tracking the weekly Supertrend’s shift into positive territory, another indicator often watched during long-term regime changes.
The 50-week moving average is around $79,000–$80,000, depending on the platform. Bitcoin is trading precisely in this area after rising to around $81,000 over the weekend.
The historical record is not perfect, but it is interesting. Galaxy Research studied Bitcoin’s previous major bear markets and found that, in four out of five cases, the first sustained weekly recovery of the 50-week moving average after the true bottom marked a transition lasting several months or years above that average.
The detail “after the bottom” is essential.
Bitcoin also prematurely reclaimed the 50-week moving average in late 2021 and in March 2022, before quickly losing the level again and continuing its bear market.
A moving average therefore does not predict the future.
It becomes more meaningful when combined with other signals.
Three positive months.
A low holding around $58,000.
A reclaimed 50-week moving average.
A Supertrend that has turned bullish again.
Individually, none of these is enough. Together, they are beginning to outline a transition that is much harder to reduce to a simple rebound.
$82,500 remains more important than September’s color
The paradox is that Bitcoin can finish three consecutive months in positive territory and still remain trapped below its current resistance.
The market still needs to sustainably reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 area. This level has already rejected Bitcoin several times since the beginning of the month. It contains sellers, several cost-basis references and the previous rebound high.
Bref Crypto has been tracking this zone since BTC returned above $80,000. A positive monthly close would be encouraging, but a break above $82,500 would provide much more immediate information about buyers’ ability to continue the move.
The difference matters.
A monthly statistic looks at the past.
Resistance measures the battle currently under way.
Bitcoin can finish September at $80,000 with a small gain and record three consecutive positive months while remaining stuck in a broad consolidation. That would improve the structure without automatically launching a new bull run.
Above $82,500–$83,000, the scenario would change more substantially. The market would reclaim its recent high and could reopen the path toward $85,000 and then $88,000.
Below $78,000, the recovery would become more fragile.
A return toward $71,000 would already require a reassessment of the move’s strength.
And a decline back toward $58,000–$60,000 would put the idea that the bottom had not yet been confirmed directly back on the table.
Three green monthly candles would be a signal.
Not immunity from corrections.
Q3 is already erasing three quarters of weakness
The quarterly view makes the shift even more striking.
Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter of 2025 down approximately 23.3%. The first quarter of 2026 then extended the weakness before the second quarter took BTC down to $58,000. Q3 is therefore on track to become its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
From the July open around $58,560 to Bitcoin’s current level near $81,000, the quarter is showing a gain of close to 38%.
That is substantial.
Even more so after June’s decline.
July: +7.26%.
August: +25.05%.
September: positive for now.
This steady advance differs from a simple squeeze lasting a few days. Bitcoin has gone through several periods of stress during the quarter without returning to its starting point.
Of course, this does not erase the decline from $126,000.
BTC remains approximately one-third below its record.
That is precisely what makes the current classification so difficult. Under a mechanical definition—more than 20% below the ATH—Bitcoin remains in a bear market. Under a structural reading—a bottom in place, rising highs and lows, and a reclaimed 50-week moving average—the market may already be in the first months of a new bullish phase.
The three positive months do not resolve this debate.
They simply make it much more interesting.
September still has to survive ten more days
Ultimately, this is the simplest point to keep in mind.
September is not over.
Bitcoin still has ten days before its monthly close. A decline of a few percentage points would be enough to erase its current lead. The market has just shown how quickly several thousand dollars can disappear: BTC moved from above $82,000 to below $75,000 during the same month before rebounding.
The macro backdrop also remains tense. The Fed has just resumed raising rates. Markets are considering further moves before the end of the year. Barclays had already anticipated this new tightening sequence at the beginning of September.
Nothing is therefore guaranteed.
But the signal already exists.
Bitcoin’s historically weakest month has so far failed to break the rally that began in July. After +7.26% and then +25.05%, September remains positive despite an environment that could easily have put BTC under renewed pressure.
If this lead holds through September 30, it will be entirely accurate to speak of three consecutive positive months.
Calling it an absolute first “during a bear market” would be far more debatable.
The most interesting interpretation may be precisely the opposite: if Bitcoin is beginning to produce the kind of sequence that major bear markets generally do not produce, it may be because the bear market itself is no longer the right framework for reading the market.
