Novogratz sees Bitcoin holding firm
“I still like the chart,” Mike Novogratz said during a recent All Things Markets discussion. The head of Galaxy added that he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin reach $100,000 before the end of the year. This conviction comes after a less comfortable period for BTC. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to US macroeconomic conditions, while bond yields are currently moving higher again.
BTC is trading around $83,500 on September 29, after exceeding $87,000 last week. It therefore still has around $16,500 to gain to reach six figures.
Novogratz is not necessarily expecting a straight-line rise. Instead, he points to significant volatility that investors will have to endure if they want to remain exposed to the bullish scenario.
His optimism is also based on what is happening around Bitcoin. The Galaxy executive notes that several “small positive stories” are emerging across the crypto ecosystem and believes they are gradually bringing enthusiasm back.
This nuance is worth preserving. Novogratz has published neither a valuation model placing BTC precisely at $100,000 nor a timeline for reaching that level. He is expressing a personal view of the market, not an official forecast from Galaxy Digital.
ETFs have started buying again
The institutional backdrop nevertheless gives him some arguments.
Galaxy Research notes that US Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.52 billion in net inflows in August, their best month of 2026. July attracted only $172 million, following $4.5 billion in outflows in June. This reversal coincided with Bitcoin’s rebound from its summer lows.
Flows remain significant in September. During the week of September 21 to 25, spot ETFs reportedly attracted another approximately $2.4 billion, while Bitcoin was approaching $87,000.
That does not rule out difficult sessions. BrefCrypto had already observed in May how $649 million could leave Bitcoin ETFs in a single day. Institutionalization works both ways: Wall Street can amplify demand, then reduce its exposure when macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.
Galaxy itself describes recent months as a transition. In its analysis published on September 17, the company recalled that Bitcoin had tested around $58,000 at the end of June before stabilizing in July and then gaining 25% in August. The market has since entered a consolidation phase.
Novogratz points to another phenomenon: a possible rotation of capital between so-called “momentum” stocks and crypto. When some highly sought-after technology stocks correct, part of the speculative capital could seek out other assets.
Bitcoin naturally finds itself at the center of this discussion.
$100,000 still needs to be reclaimed
There is nevertheless a considerable difference between approaching $100,000 and sustainably returning to a bull market.
Bitcoin already exceeded $126,000 in 2025. A move back to $100,000 would therefore not represent a new record, but rather the recovery of some of the ground lost during the 2026 bear market.
Macro conditions could still complicate the scenario. US yields remain high, and this week brings PCE inflation, GDP, the ISM and, above all, the jobs report. A few figures that are too inflationary could be enough to put the dollar and interest rates back at the center of the market.
Derivatives volatility also remains a factor. The recent drop below $83,000 triggered hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations, showing that part of the rebound still rests on highly leveraged positions.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s institutional structure is no longer much like that of previous cycles. ETFs, corporate treasuries and institutional allocations now sit at the heart of the Bitcoin narrative. Galaxy itself counted more than 1,700 institutional counterparties and approximately $8 billion in assets on its platform as of June 30.
$100,000 therefore remains entirely within reach in terms of distance. That does not make the target automatic.
Novogratz’s wording is ultimately fairly accurate: he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin reach six figures before January. With BTC around $83,500, buyers still need to generate approximately 20% upside. After the spectacular rebound since June, the target is not outlandish. It still has to be earned.
