Bitcoin: Why Friday’s CPI Matters More Than the Fed

Bitcoin is trading around $79,000 ahead of an especially busy macroeconomic period. But one data point changes how the calendar should be read: according to Coin Metrics, employment reports generate roughly twice as much movement in BTC as during a normal period in the first 30 minutes. For the US CPI, the multiplier reaches 1.8 times. Fed decisions, by contrast, produce a reaction much closer to normal. Friday, September 11, could therefore matter more than next Wednesday.

Bitcoin reacts first to the data

Coin Metrics’ report examines Bitcoin’s reactions to major macroeconomic releases between January 2025 and September 2026. The finding is fairly clear: US employment data produces the largest immediate moves, followed closely by core inflation.

The market has just demonstrated this. On September 4, Bitcoin had fallen below $80,000 after a much stronger-than-expected US employment report. BTC lost 2.32% in just 30 minutes, roughly six times its usual move around an employment release.

The analysis published by Coin Metrics on September 8 also shows that open interest fell by 3% during that same half-hour. Long liquidations reached approximately $119 million, compared with just $24 million for short positions.

Macroeconomic figures therefore provide the initial impulse. Leverage and liquidations can then amplify the move.

This mechanism explains why Bitcoin remains particularly sensitive to this week’s calendar, which Bref Crypto has already identified as one of the main risks linked to inflation and the Fed.

The CPI could decide the outcome before the Fed

The next test will arrive on Friday, September 11 at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will then publish the US CPI for August.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official calendar confirms the release. In July, US inflation came in at 3.4% year over year, while CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.5%.

This time, investors are watching core inflation most closely. Bitcoin.com cites a consensus estimate of 2.3% year over year, which would be a five-year low if confirmed.

A figure below or close to expectations could ease pressure from real rates and support Bitcoin and gold. Higher inflation would have the opposite effect: it would strengthen the Fed’s case for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy, or even raising rates.

Bitcoin is already familiar with this dynamic. After more hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh and Barclays’ change of scenario, BTC had fallen back toward $78,000.

The Fed’s decision, however, will not come until September 16.

Why could Bitcoin already have reacted significantly before then?

Because the market is constantly trying to anticipate the decision. By the time the Fed finally announces its rates, some of the information has already been priced in.

Low volatility ahead of two sensitive sessions

The context makes this sequence even more interesting.

Activity in derivatives products remains relatively low, and trading volumes are less aggressive. Vetle Lunde, an analyst at K33 Research, believes these market conditions could make Bitcoin more sensitive to macroeconomic surprises.

BTC is also trading within a fairly narrow technical range. Bref Crypto recently identified support around $78,500 and resistance near $82,500. A major inflation surprise could therefore quickly test one of these two levels.

Before the CPI, another figure will be released on Thursday: the US PPI for August, also at 8:30 a.m. in New York. Two consecutive sessions will therefore concentrate a significant share of the week’s macroeconomic risk.

Coin Metrics nevertheless adds an interesting nuance to this dependence on rates. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has now reached +0.56, its highest level since 2020, while correlations with the Nasdaq 100 and the dollar are close to zero.

Bitcoin is therefore caught between two forces. Concerns about debt, the dollar and sovereign currencies are strengthening its closeness to gold. High real rates, meanwhile, continue to weigh on its price.

Friday will show which force dominates in the short term.

The key figure, then, will not simply be Bitcoin’s price at $79,000 ahead of the CPI. It will above all be its reaction during the thirty minutes following the release. Data from the past twenty months suggests that the market no longer necessarily waits for the Fed to choose its direction.