Bitcoin puts a majority of investors back in profit
An address is considered “in profit” when Bitcoin’s current price exceeds its estimated average acquisition cost. With approximately 82% of addresses now meeting that condition, the market has moved far away from the situation seen near the summer lows.
The increase directly accompanies Bitcoin’s shift from a highly fragile market toward what some analysts describe as a “soft bull market”. BTC was still trading below $65,000 in early August. It then gained around 25% over the month before exceeding $87,000 in September.
At $83,600 today, many recent buyers have therefore recovered their losses.
In early September, Bitfinex analysts still estimated that more than 71% of Bitcoin’s supply was in profit. They were closely monitoring the historical 74.7% level, above which previous transitions from bear to bull markets had become more credible.
There is an important distinction, however: the “percentage of addresses in profit” and the “percentage of supply in profit” are two different metrics. An address holding 0.01 BTC counts as much as one holding 100 BTC in the first calculation.
The current signal therefore primarily indicates that the recovery has spread across a large share of holders.
82% in profit is not euphoria yet
A market in which the majority of investors is making money naturally appears bullish. Historically, however, Bitcoin’s true peaks often occur much higher on this type of metric.
In March 2024, more than 97% of Bitcoin addresses were in profit. In early 2025, VanEck even recorded a level close to 98%. At around 82%, the current market therefore remains far from a situation in which almost all holders have unrealized gains.
The latest analyses from Glassnode point in the same direction. On September 23, the firm estimated that Bitcoin had finally moved above several acquisition costs that had capped the price for much of 2026. More importantly, profit-taking remained well below the levels recorded around the 2024 and 2025 peaks.
The next on-chain resistance block was located around $96,700, corresponding to the average MVRV price identified by Glassnode.
There is nevertheless a downside to profitability.
The more investors move back into profit, the more holders become able to sell at a gain. A rising percentage of profitable addresses can therefore support confidence while gradually creating a pool of potential sellers.
That is why Fidelity is still unwilling to fully bury Bitcoin’s bear market, despite the spectacular improvement of recent weeks.
The figure is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of the network’s financial condition.
The quarter is genuinely changing Bitcoin’s structure
Nevertheless, the overall set of indicators is becoming difficult to ignore.
Bitcoin is on track to end the third quarter with a gain of more than 40% since July, its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024. July, August and September could also form three consecutive positive months, a sequence absent from the major bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022.
August had already surprised with a gain of nearly 25%. September, historically much less favorable for BTC, should now also finish in positive territory if the price holds through the monthly close.
Fragilities remain. Bitcoin has just endured several declining sessions, US bond yields remain high, and leverage recently triggered nearly $500 million in crypto liquidations. BTC is also trading below the $84,000–$85,000 zone identified by Glassnode as a major concentration of acquisition costs.
But the behavior is no longer the same as in June.
At the time, a significant share of holders was underwater and the market was still searching for its bottom. Three months later, approximately four out of five addresses are reportedly showing an unrealized gain.
So, 82% in profit does not mean that Bitcoin has reached its peak. Above all, it means that the bear market has lost one of its main arguments: a majority of investors trapped below their purchase price.
The next test is now higher. If Bitcoin sustainably recovers $84,000–$85,000, Glassnode places the next major on-chain zone around $95,000–$97,000.
