Bitcoin is finally benefiting from a less hostile macro environment
The dollar and yields are loosening their grip
The first reason for the rebound comes from traditional markets.
Bitcoin has just reclaimed a technical area that BrefCrypto has been tracking since the weekly Supertrend turned green. This time, the move is also benefiting from a slight improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury had reached 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level since 2002. On Friday, it fell back toward 5.24%. The easing remains modest. However, after such a sharp rise in rates, a few basis points can sometimes give risk assets room to breathe again.
The dollar is following a similar path.
The DXY briefly reached 102, its highest level in approximately eighteen months. It then pulled back. Bitcoin benefited almost immediately from the retreat, returning toward $86,000.
Why does this matter so much?
A strong dollar absorbs part of global liquidity. At the same time, a Treasury yield above 5% offers investors a high return without taking on Bitcoin’s risk. When both rise together, BTC has to work much harder to attract capital.
Conversely, when yields stop rising and the dollar eases, the opportunity cost declines.
Rates do not need to return to 3% immediately.
It is enough for the market to start believing that the most violent part of the bond-market move is over.
Inflation has also calmed part of the market
The release of the U.S. PCE data reinforced that relief.
Annual inflation remained at 3.4%, while several measures followed by investors were less concerning than feared. Bitcoin had already reacted by moving back toward $85,500 to $86,000 after the release.
The problem is not fully resolved, however.
The Federal Reserve is still dealing with inflation above its target. In addition, bond yields remain very high. BrefCrypto had already shown why a more hawkish Fed could quickly put Bitcoin under pressure.
The market is now waiting for the U.S. employment figures.
An overly strong report could revive expectations of higher rates. More moderate data, on the other hand, would probably reduce pressure on yields.
That is the first force behind the current rally: the macro backdrop has not become outright bullish for Bitcoin; it has simply become a little less hostile.
After several sessions dominated by a stronger dollar and collapsing bonds, that shift is already enough to move a large number of positions.
The chart has changed its tone as well
The second reason is technical.
Bitcoin is no longer rebounding from $60,000 within a clearly bearish structure. It has reclaimed several levels that had blocked previous attempts.
The $80,000 to $82,000 area was reclaimed first. BTC then broke through $85,000. It is now testing the $86,000 to $87,000 region, which it had already challenged several times in September.
The weekly Supertrend turned green again in early September. The main moving averages were also recovered. One month later, the signal is still holding.
The third quarter strengthened that reading.
Bitcoin gained approximately 42% between July and September, its second-best third quarter on record. The market is therefore emerging from an exceptional quarter, not merely a two- or three-session rebound.
That momentum naturally attracts trend-following traders.
The more levels BTC breaks, the more certain quantitative systems and discretionary traders start buying again.
This is also how a technical move eventually becomes a flow-driven move.
ETFs and a short squeeze add fuel
September brought $2.65 billion into ETFs
The third force comes from Wall Street.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.65 billion in net inflows in September. That was their second-best month since October 2025.
The figure needs to be viewed in context.
During the first half of the year, ETFs experienced several periods of significant outflows. Institutional demand appeared far less automatic than it had been in 2024 or 2025.
Then the flows changed.
On September 21, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed approximately $999 million in a single session. The following day brought another $714.7 million. September 23 added $346.9 million.
Three sessions were therefore enough to absorb more than $2 billion.
BlackRock played a major role in the move.
Its IBIT ETF already accounts for a considerable share of cumulative inflows into U.S. Bitcoin products. BrefCrypto had also noted that IBIT was outperforming the Vanguard S&P 500 since its launch.
However, ETFs should not be turned into a catch-all explanation for every rally.
On September 30, Bitcoin products recorded $148.7 million in net outflows. On October 1, Farside was still reporting approximately $92.9 million in withdrawals, with some data potentially still subject to updates.
The market is therefore rising even as daily ETF flows have temporarily cooled.
That is rather interesting.
It means that today’s rally does not depend solely on BlackRock or Fidelity. September’s $2.65 billion helped rebuild institutional demand. Other forces are now taking over.
Short sellers are being forced to buy
The fourth reason comes from derivatives.
When a trader opens a short position, they are betting that Bitcoin will fall. If the price moves too far against them, the exchange can automatically close the position.
Closing that short requires buying.
A price increase can therefore force bears to become buyers themselves.
That is exactly what is happening now.
During a single hour on October 2, approximately $45.96 million in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated as BTC rose from around $85,260 to $86,381. Long liquidations over the same period were almost nonexistent.
The move echoes what happened in late September.
When Bitcoin previously broke through $85,000 and then $86,000, hundreds of millions of dollars in short positions were wiped out. BrefCrypto followed a comparable mechanism during the previous liquidation wave.
The short squeeze mainly explains the speed of the move.
A conventional buyer can choose to wait for a $500 dip before entering. A liquidated trader does not have that luxury. The position is closed automatically.
As a result, buy orders arrive at the worst possible moment for sellers.
The price rises.
More shorts reach their liquidation levels.
They are bought back in turn.
The move feeds on itself for several minutes or hours.
The danger: confusing liquidations with lasting demand
A short squeeze has a limit, however.
Once the shorts have been liquidated, that fuel disappears.
For Bitcoin to continue toward $90,000, $95,000 or higher, the market needs buyers capable of actually acquiring BTC at the new prices.
That is where spot demand becomes essential.
Previous moves above $86,000 showed the problem. A huge liquidation wave can propel BTC higher quickly. Yet without spot buying to follow, the market often returns to test its breakout.
CryptoQuant had already reported a slowdown in certain spot-demand measures during September’s rally. Profit-taking also increased as Bitcoin moved farther from its low near $60,000.
The current rally therefore looks healthier when it combines three ingredients: spot buying, ETFs and liquidations.
If only the third remains, the rise becomes much more fragile.
For now, the data still show a relatively solid institutional base thanks to September’s flows. They also show that leverage is beginning to amplify every move again.
Very useful on the way up.
Much less pleasant when the market turns.
$90,000 is becoming the rally’s real test
The fifth driver comes from the calendar
Bitcoin is now entering its most closely watched seasonal period.
October earned the nickname “Uptober” after several years of particularly strong performance. The fourth quarter also remains historically one of the best periods on Bitcoin’s calendar.
The statistic comes with an unusual backdrop.
BTC has already posted its second-best third quarter on record. Ethereum, for its part, recorded its best Q3. The market is therefore not starting October after three months of capitulation.
It is starting the quarter with considerable momentum.
This could attract traders anticipating a continuation of the seasonal trend.
But it is also a potential trap.
The more popular a statistic becomes, the more of the market positions itself before it materializes. October’s expected gains may therefore be partly bought as early as September.
Nothing requires Bitcoin to repeat its historical averages.
The years 2014, 2018 and 2022 also show that a favorable calendar does not protect against an external shock.
Seasonality is therefore the rally’s fifth psychological force, not a guarantee.
All eyes are now on $90,000
The next problem is visible a few thousand dollars higher.
Bitcoin reached approximately $86,900 during the session. $90,000 is now less than 4% away.
Psychologically, the level matters enormously.
Technically, too.
Previous order-book analyses showed concentrations of sellers between approximately $85,000 and $90,000. Breaking through the first part of that area reduces some resistance. It does not eliminate the orders placed higher up.
Large sell walls can slow an advance.
They are not a physical barrier, however.
A visible order can be executed, moved or canceled within seconds. That is why it would be excessive to claim that a whale is “refusing” to let Bitcoin break above $90,000.
The level simply represents an area where supply becomes more abundant.
Buyers must now show that they can absorb it.
Employment data could reshuffle everything
The macro calendar adds one final source of tension.
Investors are waiting for the U.S. September employment report. Bond yields have only just pulled back after reaching a peak above 5.3%. A very strong NFP report could quickly send them higher again.
In that scenario, the dollar could also resume its rise.
Bitcoin would then face exactly the two headwinds it has just managed to overcome.
Conversely, a report moderate enough to ease rate concerns without triggering recession fears would give risk assets more room. Reuters notes that global markets are already edging higher ahead of the release, precisely because pressure in the bond market has eased.
This is therefore probably the most important short-term figure.
ETFs provide the institutional trend.
Liquidations provide the speed.
The chart provides the levels.
But macro conditions can still change the direction of the entire move within minutes.
Bitcoin is approaching this release from a clearly stronger position than it was in a few weeks ago.
It was trading around $60,000 in June. It has now reached almost $87,000. Its third quarter delivered a gain of more than 40%. ETFs have regained several billion dollars in inflows. Shorts continue to be punished whenever BTC attacks resistance levels.
Yet the market is not in a risk-free setup.
U.S. yields remain close to multi-decade highs. The DXY remains elevated despite its retreat. ETFs have just recorded two less favorable sessions. Profit-taking is increasing. Finally, the $90,000 area is now drawing significant attention.
That combination is precisely what makes the rally interesting.
Bitcoin is rising today because several small improvements are occurring at the same time: macro pressure is easing, the chart is breaking through resistance, shorts are being forced to buy back, institutions remain present and the start of Q4 is attracting new buyers.
None of these forces is sufficient on its own.
Together, they have already pushed BTC back above $86,000.
The next step will require more. To turn this rebound into a genuine extension toward $90,000 and beyond, Bitcoin will above all need to prove that once the shorts have been liquidated, spot buyers are still willing to pay higher prices.
