Bitcoin accounts for nearly $16 billion
Friday’s expiry is on a different scale from typical expiries. Bref Crypto previously covered a $2.1 billion expiry for Bitcoin and Ethereum in May. This time, the amount is nearly nine times larger.
Data published on September 23 showed approximately 184,000 Bitcoin options representing $15.9 billion to $16.1 billion, plus nearly 777,000 ETH options worth around $2.1 billion. The exact value varies with asset prices and open positions.
For Bitcoin, the put/call ratio for open interest stands at around 0.66 to 0.69. In other words, calls outnumber puts. The imbalance is even more pronounced in the past 24 hours’ trading volumes, where the ratio fell to 0.37, according to Coinbase Markets. Ethereum, meanwhile, has an open-interest ratio of 0.61.
This reflects a strong concentration of contracts positioned for upside, without automatically constituting a price prediction.
$90,000 attracts positions
The breakdown by strike is more revealing than the overall figure.
A significant concentration of Bitcoin calls is located around $90,000 and $100,000. On Ethereum, call contracts are more concentrated between $3,000 and $4,000. Bitcoin was trading around $86,000 when the data was published, putting the first major call zone just a few percent above the market.
This setup comes after a clear improvement in price. In early September, Bref Crypto was still tracking Bitcoin below $80,600 after it lost a major support level. BTC has since recovered several levels and moved closer to $87,000.
However, caution is warranted against too direct an interpretation. A call is not necessarily a pure bet on a rise. Professionals also use options to hedge other positions, build spreads or adjust their risk exposure.
The same applies to the well-known “max pain” levels. CoinGape places Bitcoin’s around $75,000 and Ethereum’s near $2,250. These levels theoretically indicate where the largest number of contracts would expire worthless, not where prices must necessarily go.
Friday could increase volatility
The timing is precise. Bitcoin and Ethereum quarterly options on Deribit expire on Friday at 08:00 UTC, in accordance with the platform’s rules. Deribit sets its quarterly expiries for the last Friday of March, June, September and December.
As the expiry approaches, market makers may adjust their hedges when Bitcoin moves closer to heavily positioned strikes. These adjustments, more than the simple $18.1 billion figure, could intensify certain short-term moves.
The context should also be compared with the recent decline in Bitcoin open interest and the shift in leverage toward altcoins. Crypto derivatives therefore do not tell a uniform story: leverage has declined in some segments, while quarterly options are now concentrating a significant amount around a few price levels.
Friday does not represent $18 billion that will be abruptly bought or sold in the market. It is the notional value of contracts reaching expiry. The distinction matters.
However, Bitcoin is approaching this expiry with a heavily loaded options market, calls dominating and the first major concentration around $90,000. If BTC moves closer to this level before Friday, hedging adjustments could become much more visible.
In brief
- Approximately $18.1 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire on Friday, September 25.
- Bitcoin accounts for nearly $16 billion of the total.
- Calls dominate puts for both BTC and ETH.
- The main concentrations of Bitcoin calls are around $90,000 and $100,000.
- The quarterly expiry takes place on Friday at 08:00 UTC.
