Bitcoin takes a commanding lead in the third quarter
The reversal has been sharp.
Between July and September, Bitcoin gained about 42%, compared with just a few percentage points for the major traditional markets. The acceleration extends an already historic August for Bitcoin, when BTC rose nearly 25% despite an environment still marked by the bear market.
September could have broken the trend. It did not.
Market data shows a return of close to +7.7% for Bitcoin between August 31 and September 30. Over the same period, the Nasdaq gained about 1.7%, the S&P 500 edged lower and gold lost around 6.1%.
The contrast with gold is particularly notable because the correlation between Bitcoin and gold had recently exceeded 50%, its highest level since 2020.
The two assets can therefore respond to some of the same concerns, particularly public debt and currency debasement, without necessarily delivering the same performance at the same time.
In September, Bitcoin clearly came out ahead.
ETFs and macro conditions give BTC a fresh boost
Several factors explain the acceleration.
CoinGape points in particular to renewed inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, fresh institutional purchases and a temporary improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop. Strategy bought 1,665 additional BTC at the end of September, taking its holdings to 847,666 BTC.
The market is also benefiting from inflation data that came in less badly than expected.
U.S. PCE inflation rose 3.4% year over year in August, versus the 3.7% expected, while core inflation came in at 3%, below the 3.3% forecast. Bitcoin immediately benefited from a decline in expectations for further rate hikes.
This backdrop partly explains why BTC is reacting more strongly than equities.
The market is emerging from a period of deep pessimism, reduced leverage and heavy short positioning. When conditions ease, the reaction can therefore be far more violent.
Bitcoin ETFs had already begun outperforming some traditional giants such as Vanguard in performance terms since 2024. The third quarter of 2026 reinforces that trend.
That does not mean macroeconomic risk has disappeared. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains high, continuing to make non-yielding assets more difficult to value.
Bitcoin is therefore benefiting from a favorable tailwind, but not from a completely relaxed environment.
The fourth quarter arrives with high expectations
Forecasts naturally become more aggressive after a quarter that delivered a 42% gain.
10x Research believes October could mark the start of another advance. BIT, formerly Matrixport, has also put forward several very high targets, while some technical analysts cited by CoinGape have even pointed to a possible repeat of patterns seen after the 2022 bear market. These levels remain projections, not market conclusions.
Current data nevertheless call for a degree of caution.
Bitcoin is ending the quarter at around $83,000 to $85,000, still below its all-time high of more than $125,000. CryptoQuant recently observed increased profit-taking, slowing spot demand and less intense futures activity despite the powerful rebound.
Gold is also far from being abandoned. Despite its September decline, it ended the third quarter up about 3.3%. Central banks, meanwhile, continue to buy the precious metal.
The comparison must therefore remain time-specific.
Across 2026 as a whole, the picture is far less favorable for Bitcoin: despite its huge third quarter, BTC remains slightly down since January. The S&P 500, by contrast, is still up nearly +11.8% year to date, while the Nasdaq has gained about 15.6%.
The third quarter tells a different story, however: from its summer low, Bitcoin recovered much faster than the major traditional asset classes.
And the timing is favorable. October has historically been particularly favorable for Bitcoin, although no historical average can guarantee the next candle.
The real test in the fourth quarter will not be whether Bitcoin can produce another spectacular week. It will be whether ETF flows, spot demand and institutional purchases can continue to support the rally as the post-bear-market rebound begins to fade.
For now, the ranking is clear: over the past three months, Bitcoin has left gold and Wall Street far behind.
