Bitcoin Is Once Again Tracking Gold
The last time Bitcoin and gold moved so closely together, the world was emerging from the Covid-19 shock. Governments and central banks were injecting gigantic amounts of money into the economy. Today, US debt is once again at the heart of Bitcoin’s bullish scenario.
Bitwise’s data covers a rolling 90-day correlation. A coefficient above 0.50 simply means that the two assets have recently tended to move more in the same direction.
It does not guarantee that they will rise together tomorrow.
The shift is nevertheless notable. In its analysis published on September 2, Bitwise points out that Bitcoin gained 22.4% during its best week in August, while gold advanced by around 5% and stocks declined.
BTC therefore behaved like a scarce monetary asset at a time when macroeconomic pressure was increasing.
The Nasdaq Is Losing Its Grip on Bitcoin
The other figure may be even more interesting.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from more than 60% to around 33%, its lowest level in a year, according to Bitwise.
For several years, this was precisely one of the main criticisms directed at BTC: when a risk-off move hit the markets, Bitcoin often fell alongside technology stocks. It was then difficult to seriously describe it as digital gold.
That relationship now appears to be weakening as Bitcoin has also just reclaimed several major technical levels above $80,000.
Bitwise is also observing a clearly negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar. Gold and BTC are therefore increasingly rising together when the greenback weakens.
In other words, investors may be starting to place Bitcoin on the same side of the portfolio as gold rather than alongside technology stocks.
The “Debasement Trade” Returns
Behind these correlations lies a much broader macro theme: monetary debasement.
US federal debt has just exceeded $40 trillion. Financing costs are rising, and the US Treasury has increased its buybacks of long-term bonds. For Bitwise, this environment is pushing some investors toward assets whose supply cannot easily be increased.
Gold naturally fits that definition. So does Bitcoin, with its cap set at 21 million BTC.
This does not mean that Bitcoin has suddenly become a safe-haven asset comparable to gold. Its 50% to 80% drawdowns remain entirely different from those of the precious metal. Previous periods of decoupling from stocks have also sometimes been temporary.
But something has changed in the way the market treats it.
And the timing is unusual: Bitcoin has already posted a historically bullish August, while several technical indicators are turning positive again.
If Bitcoin’s correlation with gold remains high while its correlation with the Nasdaq continues to decline, the “digital gold” narrative will finally have more than theory behind it. It will have market flows.
