Bitcoin Moves Closer to Gold and Breaks Away From the Nasdaq: Unseen Since 2020
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold exceeds 50%, its highest level since 2020, while its correlation with the Nasdaq falls to around 33%, according to Bitwise.
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LIVETrump threatens to cut trade with surplus countries if rates do not fall
U.S. President Donald Trump is stepping up pressure on monetary policy. He is threatening to end trade with countries with which the United States runs a deficit if interest rates are not lowered.
The statement adds a new layer of uncertainty to markets, which are already nervous following strong U.S. employment data. Trade policy and monetary policy are now intertwined, even as the Fed officially remains independent in its decisions.
Analysis: for Bitcoin, the signal is mixed. Lower interest rates would generally be favorable for risk assets and liquidity. But an escalation in trade tensions could instead reinforce risk aversion, reignite inflationary pressures through tariffs and further complicate the Fed’s task. In the short term, this could therefore increase BTC volatility rather than give it a clear direction.
Bitcoin Falls Back Below $80,000, Ethereum Drops Under $2,500 After U.S. Jobs Data
The crypto market’s rebound is losing momentum sharply. Bitcoin has fallen back below $80,000, while Ethereum has slipped under $2,500 following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data.
A resilient labor market reduces the need for the Fed to ease monetary policy quickly. Investors are therefore lowering the probability of an upcoming rate cut, immediately weighing on risk assets such as Bitcoin and technology stocks.
Analysis: BTC’s reaction is primarily macroeconomic. Robust employment figures can push bond yields and the dollar higher, creating two traditional headwinds for crypto. The $80,000 level is now important: if Bitcoin quickly reclaims it, the decline could remain a simple profit-taking move. However, a sustained move below this threshold would increase the risk of a return toward lower support levels. Ethereum currently appears even more fragile after losing $2,500.
Bitcoin is behaving less and less like a technology stock. According to Bitwise, its 90-day correlation with gold has just exceeded 50%, its highest level in nearly six years. At the same time, its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to around 33%, after exceeding 60%. A regime shift that is abruptly bringing the “digital gold” narrative back to the center of the market.
Bitcoin Is Once Again Tracking Gold
The last time Bitcoin and gold moved so closely together, the world was emerging from the Covid-19 shock. Governments and central banks were injecting gigantic amounts of money into the economy. Today, US debt is once again at the heart of Bitcoin’s bullish scenario.
Bitwise’s data covers a rolling 90-day correlation. A coefficient above 0.50 simply means that the two assets have recently tended to move more in the same direction.
It does not guarantee that they will rise together tomorrow.
The shift is nevertheless notable. In its analysis published on September 2, Bitwise points out that Bitcoin gained 22.4% during its best week in August, while gold advanced by around 5% and stocks declined.
BTC therefore behaved like a scarce monetary asset at a time when macroeconomic pressure was increasing.
The Nasdaq Is Losing Its Grip on Bitcoin
The other figure may be even more interesting.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from more than 60% to around 33%, its lowest level in a year, according to Bitwise.
For several years, this was precisely one of the main criticisms directed at BTC: when a risk-off move hit the markets, Bitcoin often fell alongside technology stocks. It was then difficult to seriously describe it as digital gold.
That relationship now appears to be weakening as Bitcoin has also just reclaimed several major technical levels above $80,000.
Bitwise is also observing a clearly negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar. Gold and BTC are therefore increasingly rising together when the greenback weakens.
In other words, investors may be starting to place Bitcoin on the same side of the portfolio as gold rather than alongside technology stocks.
The “Debasement Trade” Returns
Behind these correlations lies a much broader macro theme: monetary debasement.
US federal debt has just exceeded $40 trillion. Financing costs are rising, and the US Treasury has increased its buybacks of long-term bonds. For Bitwise, this environment is pushing some investors toward assets whose supply cannot easily be increased.
Gold naturally fits that definition. So does Bitcoin, with its cap set at 21 million BTC.
This does not mean that Bitcoin has suddenly become a safe-haven asset comparable to gold. Its 50% to 80% drawdowns remain entirely different from those of the precious metal. Previous periods of decoupling from stocks have also sometimes been temporary.
But something has changed in the way the market treats it.
And the timing is unusual: Bitcoin has already posted a historically bullish August, while several technical indicators are turning positive again.
If Bitcoin’s correlation with gold remains high while its correlation with the Nasdaq continues to decline, the “digital gold” narrative will finally have more than theory behind it. It will have market flows.
À propos de l’auteur
Evan's Selemani
J’ai plongé dans Bitcoin dès 2017, bien avant qu’il ne devienne un sujet grand public. Depuis, j’ai transformé cette immersion de terrain en expertise concrète : analyse des cycles de marché, compréhension fine des protocoles, décryptage des narratifs et des enjeux réglementaires. Rédacteur crypto et formateur sur le terrain, je traduis la complexité de la blockchain en contenus clairs, précis et stratégiques, pensés autant pour les investisseurs avertis que pour les nouveaux entrants.
