Crypto: 15 Days Before the Vote That Could Doom the CLARITY Act

The countdown is on in Washington. On September 15 at 2:15 p.m., the US Senate is set to cross a decisive procedural hurdle on the CLARITY Act. It will require 60 votes to end debate and move forward. With fifteen days to go before the vote, Polymarket gives the bill just a 14% chance of being enacted by 2026.

Yet a year ago, the trajectory seemed almost ideal: 294 representatives had voted in favor of the bill in the House, including 78 Democrats.

Crypto: The CLARITY Act Heads to a Vote Without Its 60 Votes

The Senate officially resumes its work on September 14. The very next day, the cloture motion on the CLARITY Act comes to a vote. This schedule underscores the pressure already apparent when Cynthia Lummis was pursuing negotiations with Democrats.

The bill had, however, passed a major milestone on May 14: the Senate Banking Committee approved it by a 15–9 vote, with two Democrats joining Republicans. The House had already passed it in July 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134.

Then politics took over once again.

Several Democrats are calling for stricter ethics protections regarding the crypto activities of politicians, particularly those of Donald Trump and his family. Other disagreements center on money laundering, stablecoins, and community banks. Even Republican Josh Hawley threatened to block the CLARITY Act if the issue of stablecoin rewards was not resolved.

A 14% Chance, and Almost No Time Left

Polymarket now gives the CLARITY Act an estimated 14% probability of being enacted before the end of 2026. The market has recorded over $11 million in volume on this single question.

The legislative calendar partly explains this pessimism.

Following its return on September 14, the Senate has an extremely narrow window before its scheduled state work period starting October 5. On the official calendar, this represents just 14 potential working days between the senators’ return and this next recess.

A failure to invoke cloture on September 15 does not legally kill the bill. Politically, however, it would make its adoption in 2026 extremely difficult.

And the CLARITY Act is not just running out of time. It is still short of votes.

The SEC Is Already Moving Forward Without Congress

Washington is not standing still. On August 18, the SEC unveiled Regulation Crypto Assets, a new framework specifically designed for certain capital raises involving crypto assets.

The official SEC proposal includes two exemptions allowing issuers to raise up to $5 million over four years or $75 million over twelve months. A safe harbor could also determine when certain assets cease to be legally tied to an investment contract.

This regulatory push extends the shift in doctrine recently described by Hester Peirce.

The CFTC is also moving forward. Michael Selig has established an Innovation Task Force focused on crypto assets, blockchain, and prediction markets. The agency is already defending its authority over the latter, leveraging the powers granted to it under existing law.

However, Paul Atkins does not view these initiatives as a replacement for Congress. On the contrary, the SEC Chair believes that legislation remains essential to establish sufficiently durable rules.

That is where September 15 becomes interesting. If the CLARITY Act passes, Congress regains control over the regulatory architecture of US crypto. If it fails, the SEC and CFTC will continue to push forward using their current powers. Regulation will therefore keep developing. Simply put, Washington might once again leave regulators to write a large share of the rules that Congress failed to pass.

In Brief

• The cloture vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for September 15 at 2:15 p.m.
• Sixty votes will be required to clear this hurdle.
• The House had passed the bill 294–134, with 78 Democrats voting in favor.
• The Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15–9 in May.
• Polymarket currently estimates its chances of adoption in 2026 at around 14%.
• The SEC and CFTC are already developing their own regulatory frameworks.