Bitcoin heads for its best August since 2017 as Q4 approaches

Bitcoin is on track to finish August with its strongest performance for the month in nine years. BTC is still trading around $78,000 on August 31 and is up more than 20% for the month, despite its retreat from $81,000. After two difficult quarters, the reversal has been sharp. Comparisons with 2017 are already beginning—perhaps a little too soon.

Bitcoin erases a disastrous start to the year

The figures offer a clear picture of the reversal. Bitcoin lost 22.2% in the first quarter, followed by another 14.09% in the second, according to data cited by U.Today. The third quarter is now showing a gain of more than 30% with one month still to go before its close.

August accounts for a large part of this rebound. Bitcoin was already up nearly 28% when Peter Brandt confirmed his long position on August 28. The pullback since then has brought the monthly performance back to around 24%, according to some price series.

That remains highly unusual.

Since 2018, no August had come close to this performance. Bitcoin gained around 14% in August 2021, while 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 all ended in the red.

2017 remains in a category of its own, however: long-term historical series put its August gain at close to 64%. It was another era, with a much smaller market.

ETFs put billions back on the table

The move is not based solely on retail traders. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion during the week of August 17–21, their best week since October 2025.

Bref Crypto had already recorded $424 million in inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs during a single session a few days later.

Institutional money therefore returned just as Bitcoin was violently breaking through its $60,000 zone.

The macro trigger also played a role. The U.S. Treasury announced an increase in its purchases of longer-maturity bonds, pushing yields lower and putting pressure on the dollar. Reuters noted at the time that Bitcoin had risen above $80,000, driven in particular by the return of the “debasement trade.”

The rally also crushed short sellers. Several billion dollars in short positions were liquidated during the acceleration.

September could cool the euphoria

This is where the comparison with 2017 becomes interesting.

In 2017, Bitcoin had an exceptional third quarter before gaining more than 200% in the fourth quarter. But September was negative in between.

This time, the calendar is also packed. The Fed meets on September 15 and 16, markets are now concerned about another rate hike, and employment and inflation data will be released before the decision.

In other words, August guarantees nothing.

Bitcoin must also break through its $80,000–$82,000 resistance. Several attempts have already failed in this area. BlackRock is looking more closely at debt and currency debasement over the long term, but traders face a much more immediate obstacle.

A historic August nevertheless provides something that was still missing in the first half of the year: momentum, ETF flows and buyers capable of absorbing a gain of more than 20% in just a few weeks.

In 2017, this dynamic turned into euphoria in the fourth quarter. In 2026, Bitcoin must first survive September.