Crypto: Four Days That Could Pivot Bitcoin Between a Rally and a Correction

Bitcoin begins September around $78,500 with a particularly busy schedule. US employment, economic activity, the Fed, and returning tensions between Washington and Tehran are set to collide over four days. The market now estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at nearly 60%. For crypto, this week could quickly become uncomfortable.

Crypto: US Jobs Take Control

The first wave arrives on Tuesday, September 1st, with the JOLTS report and the ISM Manufacturing index. Wednesday will bring ADP private payrolls and the Fed’s Beige Book. This sensitivity to macro data is nothing new: Bref Crypto has already analyzed the pressure of inflation and the Fed on Bitcoin.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official calendar schedules the climax for Friday with the US job creation figures for August.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect about 58,000 new jobs, following a loss of 23,000 in July, and unemployment remaining steady at 4.1%.

A very strong report would likely reinforce the case for a rate hike. Conversely, a moderate slowdown could bring relief to Bitcoin. However, a sharp drop in employment would be less comforting, as the market would then begin to factor in the risk of recession.

The Fed Becomes More Dangerous for Bitcoin

Kevin Warsh changed the equation at Jackson Hole. His hawkish comments pushed the implied probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to nearly 58%.

The FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 15 and 16. Before that, Christopher Waller will speak on Thursday regarding the economic outlook.

The US dollar and Treasury yields have already reacted. For crypto, the mechanics remain quite harsh: higher rates make bonds more attractive, dampening the appetite for Bitcoin and altcoins.

This setup mirrors what was observed when US rates and oil had previously dragged down the crypto market.

And this time, oil is back in the equation.

Iran, Oil, and CLARITY Add More Risk

Brent crude surpassed $90 following new US strikes against Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz. These tensions have reignited inflationary concerns and helped push rate hike expectations toward 60%.

Yet Bitcoin is still holding above $78,000—an interesting level of resistance.

US regulation also remains in the background. The procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for September 15 and will require 60 votes. While not an immediate catalyst for this week unlike the US macroeconomic data, its approach adds another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Bref Crypto had previously detailed the CLARITY Act’s race against the clock in the Senate.

September thus begins with an uncomfortable mix: Bitcoin close to a major resistance level, a more hawkish Fed, oil at $90, and a decisive US jobs report. Bulls can still hold their ground. This week, however, one bad economic metric at the wrong time could easily bring volatility back to the center of the market.

In Brief

• Tuesday: JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing.
• Wednesday: ADP and the Fed’s Beige Book.
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims and remarks by Christopher Waller.
• Friday: US employment report for August.
• The market prices in a roughly 60% probability of a rate hike in September.