Bitcoin: BlackRock recalculates, and 2% is still enough to outperform the 60/40 portfolio

Bitcoin has lost around 50% since its October 2025 peak. BlackRock has therefore run the numbers again. The result: even after this sharp drawdown, an allocation of just 2% to BTC would have lifted the annualized return of a traditional 60/40 portfolio from 9.9% to 11.8% over ten years. Volatility, meanwhile, would have risen from 10.1% to just 10.6%.

Bitcoin withstands BlackRock’s latest test

The timing is far from insignificant. BlackRock is not reassessing Bitcoin after a new record high, but following one of its most difficult periods. This is a very different situation from the one in which IBIT was already turning Bitcoin holders into Wall Street clients.

In its new study, Re-Underwriting Bitcoin: Still a Portfolio Diversifier, BlackRock compares a portfolio made up of 60% equities and 40% bonds with two alternatives containing 1% and 2% BTC, respectively.

The traditional portfolio delivers an annualized return of around 9.9% over the period studied. With 1% Bitcoin, it reaches 10.9%. With 2%, 11.8%.

The difference in risk remains surprisingly small: annualized volatility of 10.1% without BTC, 10.3% with 1% and 10.6% with 2%.

In other words, 2% Bitcoin would have added around 1.9 percentage points of annual return for just 0.5 percentage points of additional volatility.

2% Bitcoin makes a significant difference

The Sharpe ratio tells the story even more clearly. This indicator compares the return achieved with the risk taken.

Without Bitcoin, it stands at 0.81. With a 1% allocation, it rises to 0.90. At 2%, it climbs to 0.96.

Even the portfolio’s maximum drawdown changes little: -20.3% for the 60/40 portfolio versus around -20.9% with 2% Bitcoin.

BlackRock nevertheless notes that these are historical data, not a promise of future performance. In its official study, the asset manager says BTC’s drivers remain different from those of traditional assets: a capped supply, no sovereign issuer and a potential global monetary role.

This view also echoes BlackRock’s analysis of US debt. Persistent public deficits and currency depreciation may increase interest in an asset whose maximum supply remains fixed at 21 million units.

BlackRock is not becoming a maximalist

That does not mean putting 20% of a portfolio into Bitcoin.

The 1% to 2% threshold comes up precisely because beyond that point, BTC’s contribution to total risk increases rapidly. In its previous research, BlackRock estimated that an allocation of this size could bring a level of risk comparable to that of a large technology stock within a diversified portfolio.

And despite the recent plunge, this mathematics still holds.

The conclusion is less spectacular than a $500,000 Bitcoin target, but probably more important for Wall Street. Bitcoin no longer needs to be viewed as a dominant investment to affect portfolio performance.

This normalization is taking place as Bitcoin holds around $78,000 despite tensions in the bond market.

BlackRock is therefore not saying that Bitcoin has become risk-free. The asset manager is making a more precise point: even after a major crash, a small dose of BTC has historically continued to improve the mathematics of a traditional portfolio. For institutional adoption, this is probably the figure to remember.