Bitcoin is showing another signal consistent with a potential exit from the bear market. The MVRV is hovering around 1.54, above its 365-day average of 1.44. This improvement in on-chain profitability supports a bullish hypothesis, but is not enough to prove that the bear market is definitively over.
A chart shared by Coin Bureau compares the move with the recoveries seen in 2019 and 2023. The comparison deserves attention: it points to a possible regime shift, not the disappearance of risk. Glassnode’s research helps explain the signal, while also highlighting why a rushed interpretation should be avoided.
In brief
- Bitcoin’s MVRV, near 1.54, is above its annual benchmark of 1.44.
- This comparison points to positive momentum, distinct from the simple move above an MVRV of 1.
- Historical precedents support the recovery scenario, but do not guarantee a sustained rise.
Bitcoin’s MVRV moves above its annual trend
The recovery ties in with the theme of Bitcoin addresses returning to profit, with one important difference: MVRV measures aggregate profitability, not the share of people who are in profit. The two indicators therefore answer different questions.
At the time of our review, Glassnode Studio showed 1.53978084, or approximately 1.54. The table published by analyst Axel Adler Jr., dated October 11, also showed 1.54 and a 365-day moving average of 1.44.
Using these rounded figures, the ratio is approximately 6.9% above its annual benchmark. This figure measures the gap between two indicators. It does not forecast a 6.9% return for Bitcoin, nor the probability of a new record high.
In its October 11 post, Coin Bureau suggested that the bear market could be ending. That interpretation belongs to the account commenting on the chart; it should not be presented as an official announcement from Glassnode.
Aggregate profit, not every investor’s profit
Glassnode’s definition compares market capitalization with realized capitalization. The former values bitcoins at the current price, while the latter uses the price at which each unit was last moved on the blockchain.
An MVRV of 1.54 therefore corresponds to a valuation approximately 54% above this aggregate benchmark. It does not mean that every holder is up 54%. Entry dates vary, and an on-chain transfer is not necessarily a purchase on an exchange.
Two thresholds must also be distinguished. The level of 1 compares market value with its on-chain cost basis. The annual average compares MVRV with its own recent trend: the market can remain broadly profitable while losing momentum.
Why 2019 and 2023 remain reference points
In its March 20, 2023 report, Glassnode had already described an MVRV oscillator moving back into positive territory. The analysis linked this shift to large volumes of BTC returning to profit and examined it alongside other measures of network activity.
This reading recalls the technical recovery signals tracked by BrefCrypto. Different indicators can converge, but that convergence must be observed rather than assumed: an on-chain signal is not a price close.
The 2019 precedent provides an important caveat. In a retrospective published in early 2022, Glassnode noted that the recovery from April to August 2019 was followed by nine months of sideways and bearish market conditions, before the capitulation of March 2020.
A genuine improvement can therefore precede a significant relapse. Without a test covering every crossover, the examples of 2019 and 2023 do not make it possible to calculate a success rate, let alone date the next cycle.
This distinction between a rebound and cycle confirmation was also central to our article on Fidelity’s caution over the September rebound. It remains useful when interpreting the new signal, without presenting that earlier analysis as a current statement from the asset manager.
The annual chart is not read like the 180-day chart
The methodological distinction matters. Glassnode’s annual oscillator divides MVRV by its 365-day average, then subtracts 1. It turns positive when the ratio rises above that average.
The chart attached to the post may show the same ratio without subtracting 1: in that case, the threshold is 1 rather than zero. The diagnosis is equivalent, but the displayed values are not interchangeable.
Glassnode also offers a version measured against a 180-day average. Changing the window alters sensitivity and crossover dates. To compare two cycles, the same indicator, duration and dated observations must be used.
Demand still needs to confirm the signal
MVRV does not directly measure spot purchases or ETF flows. In its October 7 report, Glassnode still described low volumes and an increase in realized capitalization that new capital inflows explained only in part.
This dated observation, not presented as a real-time measure, adds context to the issue of retail investors’ still-limited return to Bitcoin. A repricing of coins already held and an influx of new buyers are not exactly the same driver.
The next phase will be assessed through the MVRV’s ability to remain above its average, volume trends and buyers’ capacity to absorb profit-taking. A sustained move back below the annual benchmark would weaken this bullish reading, without turning every daily fluctuation into a new cycle.
Bitcoin therefore has another argument in favor of a recovery, not a certificate that the bear market is over. The distinction matters: it makes it possible to track a regime shift without confusing its first signal with confirmation.
